Thursday, April 14, 2011

I'M A MARKET GURU

What do you know? I'm a market guru. If I put my tinfoil, Fox News analyst, hat on here's how I know ...


Ultraconservative market newsletter "newsmax.com" had this to say about market "guru" Robert Prechter.
... Prechter sees a plunge ahead for stock prices. The reason is because investors have turned way too bullish [confident] ...
According to Newsmax, then Prechter lists the tell-tale signals that tell him trouble's around the corner:
• Individual investors are the most bullish in six years ...
• Newsletter advisers are the most bullish in seven years ...
• Futures traders are the most bullish in four years ...
• Mutual fund managers are the most bullish ever ...
• Hedge fund manager are the most bullish ever ...
• Economists are unanimously bullish ...
• Top global strategists on three national panels expressed bullishness.
In other words, according to Prechter we have a bunch of market players who, once again, are confident about the prospects of the market (keep in mind these guys get paid commissions and bonuses only if they make their clients so confident that they invest their money with them). And, with their confident "nothing's-in-it-for-me" objective analysis, they've convinced their clients too.

So, collectively, according the Prechter, market players and their clients are swallowed up in yet another market herd stampede.



But, with Americans jittery about their individual prospects, and with the economy on shaky grounds, why all the confidence? What, in God's name, could have triggered this "bullish" herd mentality from today's market players (who, again, get paid big bucks only if they get people to believe markets are growing)? Is it tied to improving market fundamentals? Is a new tech driven boom on the horizon? Could the world be poised for the next super market innovation?

Interestingly, None of the Above.

What's driving this current bubble cycle - according to Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services - is the Federal Reserve's trillion dollar money dump over the past two and a half years. But what's really made the market players bubbly is how this money has been "recycled into stocks" and onto Wall Street's books.

That's right. Because the federal government has been dumping money into the economy for years now - euphemistically called Quantitative Easing (QE I & II) - market players have regained their confidence. And why not? They're making record profits, again. Their mojo is back. In fact, the money dump has worked so well (for America's moneyed elite) that the GOP is even looking for "novel" ways to continue the money dump, but hoping nobody notice what they really want to do


At the end of the day, the goal of dumping taxpayer backed money into the economy is to prop up Wall Street. Market gurus like Robert Prechter and Bryon Wien know this. They also know that if the money dump stops we're all in trouble. Market guru Prechter even predicts the stock market could drop 40% (if we don't get another big money dump - or QE III - I have no problem with this number).


The interesting thing is that I've been saying all of this for years. I guess that makes me a market guru too ;-).

- Mark

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